Nov 22 2007

CityView: Vancouver 2010, it’s all downhill from there?

The latestfrom MetroBlogging Vancouver’s group blog has it that the Pacific metropolis’ breakneck development will run into a brick wall after the 2010 Olympics.

Well, you heard it there first. But I suspect it won’t happen. The economic fundamentals (a strong resource-rich hinterland, highly educated population, extremely livable urban environments and overall Canadian political stability) are just too strong for people and capital to stop flowing into the area.

Sure, there will likely be a big dip as the American economy bears the shocks of an overdue recession. And real estate prices have to go down at some point. You don’t have to be an economist to see what’s coming down the road. But the way things are going in Vancouver and the rest of the province, it seems as though the good times have just begun.

Party pooper.

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4 responses so far

4 Responses to “CityView: Vancouver 2010, it’s all downhill from there?”

  1. on 22 Nov 2007 at 9:40 pm

    i am a long time west side realtor and i am still seeing many non vancouver buyers , in spite of the higher prices- albertans and now torontonians (either early 30s who have obtained a job or baby boomers who are buying second homes or moving here) , also noticing an increase in interest from the UK. only some of the local buyers, who are frustrated by the high prices, talk about a pullback. i am told by asian realtors that there are very rich koreans still moving into west side houses

  2. on 26 Nov 2007 at 9:45 am

    I have found an interesting discussion on this subject here, with one of the commenters claiming that ‘after 2012 everything will sink into the ground’. Well, I couldn’t disagree more. I don’t think that prices in the city will drop in the years to come.

  3. on 27 Nov 2007 at 5:25 am

    I think my argument is slightly mischaracterized here. I think there will be a slow down in real estate, especially if the economy takes a downturn, but the main focus of my article was what happens when a city focuses a great deal of development money (especially government development) into one specific event. It leaves the city sort of locked into that year.

    Let’s be honest 2010 is where all of our provincial, local and federal money is going. From projects around Vancouver (Skytrain expansion) to the Sea to Sky and even the new bridge in the Okanagan it’s all for 2010 or at least aimed to be done in time for that.

    We’re already running over budget on most of the projects, and so following their completion it’s natural to assume that the governments are going to hold off on spending much more money on new infrastructure for a good several years, probably decades. New apartments may or may not be built, though there’s only so much of downtown that can be torn down and rebuilt, but not a lot of government projects will be.

    Thus Vancouver’s going to feel like 2010 far into the future. The example of Edmonton and Montreal was used, though New York (at least as of 10 years ago) is also apt since New York feels very 1920s/1950s since that’s when the bulk of it was constructed. Sure there’s been new stuff, but the backbone is still the stuff built around the first half of the 20th century.

    That’s not to say that New York is an economic sink hole, far from it it’s amoung the world’s top tier cities in a way that Vancouver won’t be (at least not in my lifetime).

  4. on 27 Nov 2007 at 6:01 am

    My apologies for not getting your position quite right, Jeffery. Perhaps you’re right. We could certainly do worse than keep our current overall look for the next 50 years or so.

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